Interval Forecast for Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Forecasting ENSO with a smooth transition autoregressive model
This study examines the benefits of nonlinear time series modelling to improve forecast accuracy of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The paper adopts a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) modelling framework to assess the potentially regime-dependent dynamics of sea surface temperature anomaly. The results reveal STAR-type nonlinearities in ENSO dynamics, resulting in sup...
متن کاملDynamic Bayesian smooth transition autoregressive models
In this paper we propose the Gaussian Dynamic Bayesian Smooth Transition Autoregressive (DBSTAR) models for nonlinear autoregressive time series processes as alternative to both the classical Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models of Chan and Tong (1986) and the computational Bayesian STAR (CBSTAR) models of Lopes and Salazar (2005). The DBSTAR models are autoregressive formulations of ...
متن کاملDetermining the Number of Regimes in a Threshold Autoregressive Model Using Smooth Transition Autoregressions
In this paper we propose a method for determining the number of regimes in threshold autoregressive models using smooth transition autoregression as a tool. As the smooth transition model is just an approximation to the threshold autoregressive one, no asymptotic properties are claimed for the proposed method. Tests available for testing the adequacy of a smooth transition autoregressive model ...
متن کاملSmooth Transition Autoregressive Models – New Approaches to the Model Selection Problem
It has been shown in the literature that the task of estimating the parameters of nonlinear models may be tackled with optimization heuristics. Thus, we attempt to carry these intuitions over to the estimation procedure of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR, Teräsvirta, 1994) models by introducing the following three stochastic optimization algorithms: Simulated Annealing, (Kirkpatrick, Gel...
متن کاملAsymmetric Behavior of Inflation in Iran: New Evidence on Inflation Persistence Using a Smooth Transition Model
T his paper investigates the asymmetric behavior of inflation. We use logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model to characterize the regime-switching behavior of Iran’s monthly inflation during the period May 1990 to December 2013. We find that there is a triple relationship between the inflation level, its fluctuations and persistence. The findings imply that the behavi...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: AFRREV STECH: An International Journal of Science and Technology
سال: 2016
ISSN: 2227-5444,2225-8612
DOI: 10.4314/stech.v5i1.3